CMC Markets专栏:新西兰央行降息 纽币大跌

新西兰时间上午9点钟(北京时间凌晨4点钟), 新西兰央行再次调低官方利率(OCR)25个基准点至2.25%, 进一步扩大其货币宽松. 在此之前, 绝大部分经济学家预期本次新西兰央行将保持利率不变, 这场意外使得纽币经过数日反弹后再度大跌. 本次降息是新西兰央行自2015年6月份以来的第5次降息。 截至新西兰时间9点32分, 纽币兑美元汇率下跌130余点至0.6653. 根据新西兰央行行长格莱姆. 维拉的发言，本次利率下调主要是由于乳业出口压力与全球金融风险考虑。并指出由于通胀率预期降低，未来可能实行进一步的货币宽松。

新西兰央行调整官方利率情况

资料来源：新西兰央行

新西兰乳制品出口压力愈行扩大，银行债务风险增大

自2014年2月份以来，新西兰乳制品出口价格中主要组分全脂奶粉价格下跌16%。新西兰乳制品出口不仅面临持续下行的价格的困境，而且面临美国与欧洲方面乳品产量上涨而抢占市场的压力。2日前，新西兰的世界第二大乳业公司恒天然乳业再次将其向奶农收购奶品的价格与其下调6%， 由4.15纽币/千克下调至3.90纽币/千克。而根据新西兰官方数据统计， 新西兰奶品收购的价格达到5.3纽币/千克才能够使得奶农收支平衡。 行长维拉指出，目前的纽币汇率比预期要高出5%。

同时，根据对新西兰各大银行的商业压力测试结果，乳制品是银行债务重的主要构成部分，占比重高达10-15%，这些债务面临成为银行坏账的风险。 新西兰乳制品行业的下行压力是本次央行下调官方利率的主要原因。

通胀率始终低迷，全球金融风险依存

由于原材料价格与能源价格的持续低迷，新西兰国内通胀率预期降低，目前的通胀率水平仅为0.1%，远低于预期水平的2%的区间。对于国际金融市场前景不容乐观，全球经济增长压力增大， 尤其是目前中国经济增长放缓，会对新西兰贸易产生直接的影响。

新西兰消费物价指数变化

数据来源：新西兰央行、新西兰统计局

新西兰国内生产总值增长走势

数据来源：新西兰央行

在随后的记者招待会中，当被问及到中国现状对新西兰经济的影响时，行长维拉表示，中国是很强大的经济体，在国际货币交易中占有主要地位，其货币政策间接影响到新西兰的货币价值，如果中国货币实行贬值，可能自然会引发其他货币的升值，进而影响纽币价值。同时也指出中国目前所面临的风险，在过去的6年里，中国的企业债务增长70%，是其他国家所不可想像的。中国的未来财政与货币政策将备受关注。

新西兰房价增长虽然有所回稳，但仍然居于高位

在谈及新西兰房市时，行长维拉指出新西兰的房市价格上涨虽然有所回回稳，但由于受大量移民的影响，房价依旧居于高位。新西兰需要提高房产供给量才是解决房价的根本问题。

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Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.com.au or you can call us on 1300 303 888.

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800 938 695 （中国香港）
1300 668 268 （澳大利亚）
0800 888 873 （新西兰）
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Disclaimer NZ

Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.co.nz or you can call us on 0800 26 26 27.

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Tina Teng在2015年6月份加入CMC Markets 担任销售与客户培训主管职务，负责亚太地区客户的培训和经济评论的撰写工作。她具有其独树一帜的市场视角和技术分析方法，认为金融市场是集历史，经济，政治，心理学与哲学于一身的学问。技术分析是市场基本面的可视性技术语言；而对于技术性语言的解读与对各国家经济、政治与历史背景分析的结合，与对投资心理状态的理解才会是对金融市场最全面的感知。自2012至2015年，Tina Teng曾任职金融经纪公司客户服务部经理为客户提供外汇差价合约方面的培训工作。此前，自2005年至2009年，她曾经在中国中央电视台广告经济中心任职，负责撰写中国广告经济方面的评论文章，造就了她对于中国经济现状和企业现状有深入的理解和敏锐的洞察力。