CMC Markets专栏：乳品价格三连胜

Author
CMC Markets, Tina Teng

Article
昨日全球乳制品拍卖价格较前值再次上涨16.5%，自8月份以来连续三次上涨，创自2010年9月份以来最大涨幅。乳制品平均价格达2568美元/公吨。其中，全脂奶粉价格达2495美元/公吨，涨幅20.6%，创自4月份以来新高，相比8月15日最低价格1590美元/公吨上涨56.9%。并且，全脂奶粉2016年3月份远期合约价格以2680纽币/公吨成交，比前次上涨26.5%。此次的乳制品价格大幅上涨给新西兰经济再次带来积极的信心，纽币对美元在消息公布以后急速攀升70点至0.6368。
 
全脂奶粉价格走势

 
全球乳制品拍卖价格指数变化（%）

全球乳制品10年价格指数

数据来源：Globaldairytrade
 
此次价格的上涨亦借助于乳品供给量的削减，全脂奶粉供给较前次削减5%，环比下降43%。澳纽（ANZ）银行在拍卖后评论指出，乳制品拍卖市场有可能会受到季度性尼诺气候的影响而存在风险。除此之外，由于奶牛数量的减少与牧场管理结构的变化，乳制品供给量有望减产5%或更多。新西兰恒天然乳业在8月份将固体乳制品收购价格由5.23纽币/千克下调至3.85纽币/千克。连续三次拍卖的利好态势使得全脂奶粉价格有望在明年实现3000美元/公吨的预期。
澳纽（ANZ）银行预测恒天然乳业乳制品收购价格会上涨至4.25纽币/千克-4.50纽币/千克的区间。
 
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Tina Teng在2015年6月份加入CMC Markets 担任销售与客户培训主管职务，负责亚太地区客户的培训和经济评论的撰写工作。她具有其独树一帜的市场视角和技术分析方法，认为金融市场是集历史，经济，政治，心理学与哲学于一身的学问。技术分析是市场基本面的可视性技术语言；而对于技术性语言的解读与对各国家经济、政治与历史背景分析的结合，与对投资心理状态的理解才会是对金融市场最全面的感知。自2012至2015年，Tina Teng曾任职金融经纪公司客户服务部经理为客户提供外汇差价合约方面的培训工作。此前，自2005年至2009年，她曾经在中国中央电视台广告经济中心任职，负责撰写中国广告经济方面的评论文章，造就了她对于中国经济现状和企业现状有深入的理解和敏锐的洞察力。