CMC Markets专栏: 为什么美股与欧股均跳水?

Author
CMC Markets, Tina Teng

昨日全球大部分股市大幅回撤，尤其为美股市场与欧股市场，美国道琼斯指数下跌1.40%，美国标普指数100跌幅1.15%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 1.17%：欧洲斯托克50指数下跌1.76，德指30下跌1.15%。为何欧美股市在近期的涨势中迅速出现回撤？原因主要在：一、大宗商品价格继续破位下滑； 二、美联储再次表示加息在即，美国加息预期愈强；三、欧洲央行行长德拉吉表示可能在12月份实行进一步宽松。

美国、欧洲股指走势

数据来源：布伦伯格
 
大宗商品价格再次跳水
昨日大宗商品类市场出现全线下滑， 表现突出的为原油与铜。由于美国能源信息统计局显示数据，原油库存量由前一周的80万桶上涨到422.4万桶，远超于预期130万桶，给供大于求的市场再施压力， 美国德克萨斯原油下跌1.28美元， 一日下跌2.98%至41.65美元/桶；英国布伦特原油价格下滑3.67%，下跌1.68美元至44.13美元。技术形态上均已经跌破其重要的支持位置。原油增产主要是由于各产油主要地区均为占有市场而无意减产，认可以高成本继续维持生产。其中，欧派克国家无减产之意，伊朗在被取消制裁后反而增加其产油量，加之俄罗斯近期也在增产步伐中，美国继续增产原油，全球供过于求的形式越演越重。另外，铜价下跌2.23%至216.50美分/磅。能源价格下滑使得大部分能源板块股价跳水。
 
欧洲经济势态并不乐观
其次，欧洲央行行长德拉吉对于欧洲经济表态不乐观，使得市场风险偏好升高。昨日在讲话中他再次表示，由于中国与新兴市场经济增长下行风险与希腊债务问题，欧洲核心通胀率转点上行的迹象有所减弱，欧洲央行对于其货币宽松政策的尺度将可能进一步放宽，主要将体现在印刷纸币以提高货币供给量。现行资产购买力度为600亿欧元/月，此项目将在2016年9月份结束，欧洲央行总购买量将达1万亿欧元。
 
美联储仍然支持加息
在昨日的美联储成员会议上，美联储主席耶伦表示：对于后经济危机的货币政策的转折与汇率机制将是至关重要的，应该被慎重实行。并指出美联储副主席Fischer将对于货币政策的过度做出传达。由于Fischer一向支持美国尽早加息，将货币政策提到正常轨道上来，这便可以预测在未来两天的会议中，可能会有更加鹰派的言论出台。另外，纽约美联储主席威廉姆斯也表示，在现有的经济形势下，美国自2006年以来的第一次加息的条件可能很快会成熟，在加息后美国将逐步实行紧缩政策。昨日美国股指均在高位有大幅回撤，主要受市场风险担忧影响。技术层面上看，有可能是获利回吐与部分空仓所致。

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Tina Teng在2015年6月份加入CMC Markets 担任销售与客户培训主管职务，负责亚太地区客户的培训和经济评论的撰写工作。她具有其独树一帜的市场视角和技术分析方法，认为金融市场是集历史，经济，政治，心理学与哲学于一身的学问。技术分析是市场基本面的可视性技术语言；而对于技术性语言的解读与对各国家经济、政治与历史背景分析的结合，与对投资心理状态的理解才会是对金融市场最全面的感知。自2012至2015年，Tina Teng曾任职金融经纪公司客户服务部经理为客户提供外汇差价合约方面的培训工作。此前，自2005年至2009年，她曾经在中国中央电视台广告经济中心任职，负责撰写中国广告经济方面的评论文章，造就了她对于中国经济现状和企业现状有深入的理解和敏锐的洞察力。